European Dependencies

Big Bang or Slow Pullback: There Will Be Less US for Europe

Does a win for Kamala Harris in the US presidential election mean a more secure Europe? Probably, compared to a new Trump presidency. But weaning Europe off from its dependency on the US is set to continue.

Majda Ruge is a senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin.
Majda Ruge is a senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. Justus Lemm

With Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party presidential nominee, Europeans risk being lured back into a misleading sense of security. Despite Harris being in a slight lead over Donald Trump nationally and in six swing states, the odds that either candidate could win the 2024 US presidential election are even. Furthermore, over the past decade, both parties have shown a consistent propensity towards a more inward-looking approach to foreign affairs, whether it is security or economic affairs. This will continue, no matter which candidate wins. Europeans thus must avoid being drawn back into their comfort zone of transatlantic dependency. They will need to step up on political strategy and capabilities, regardless of who occupies the White House.